Blue Jays Go All In - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Blue Jays Go All In Stuck

Posted on November 13, 2012 at 09:14 PM.

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A year ago, the Miami Marlins were supposedly beginning a new era. They just completed the construction of a publicly financed ballpark. Their return gesture was to double their payroll and sign a slew of free agents including Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. A year later, they are spitting in the face of their fan base, completing the dismantling of their team and, more importantly, the completion of dumping every big salary they had. Now, the Marlins will enter the 2013 season with the lowest payroll in the sport and the distinction of having been eliminated from the playoff race on Opening Day. Assuming the trade is approved--and it will be approved--the Marlins latest salary dump has made the American League East even more competitive.

The story of the 2013 Marlins is important, but that is a story for another day. This trade is all about the Toronto Blue Jays. In one night, the Blue Jays have acquired one of the best shortstops and leadoff hitters in Major League Baseball, a veteran starter who has pitched at least 201 inning in each of the last 12 years, a legitimate top of the rotation starter who is entering his final season before hitting the free agent market, and two good bench pieces. In short, the Toronto Blue Jays have helped fill most of their holes in just one deal.

They also take on quite a bit of salary in the deal; that is the only real risk for a club that has preached financial restraint since firing JP Ricciardi. Jose Reyes is still owed $96 million over the next five years. Mark Buehrle is still owed $48 million over three years. Josh Johnson is set to make $13 million this season before heading onto the market. Right now, the Toronto Blue Jays have the highest payroll in Major League Baseball. The last time they held that title was when they won the actual title, 1993.

The names are certainly big, but that doesn�t often lead to instant success. The 2012 Marlins can attest to that. Adding a player like Jose Reyes does, however, make an instant and great improvement. Reyes will enter his age 30 season as the Blue Jays leadoff hitter and shortstop. He is coming off of a somewhat of a quiet season by his standards, but the switch hitting shortstop finished the season with a slash line of .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 home runs, and 40 stolen bases. His 4.8 WAR was slightly down from the 6.2 WAR that he compiled in 2011 when he was a legitimate MVP candidate. In other words, a disappointing Reyes� season is still one that is of upper echelon quality.

The knock on Reyes has been his health as he began his career with leg issues and then went through a bizarre three year period where he was on the disabled list multiple times and missed a total of 191 games during that stretch. But, he played 160 games last season and actually has played in over 130 games in six of his 10 seasons. Playing half of his games on the artificial turf will help foster more worries about his health. It will also test his defense. Contrary to the eye test, Jose Reyes hasn�t been an average shortstop since 2008. Last season, his UZR was minus-2.8 while his DRS rings in at minus-17.

Reyes is a special offensive player. Blue Jays� shortstops hit just .255/.298/.349 with 25 doubles, 2 triples, and 10 home runs, adding up to a 1.6 WAR player. Blue Jays� leadoff hitters hit just .237/.294/.355. Despite injuries to their best offensive player in Jose Bautista and terrible seasons from Adam Lind, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus, and JP Arencibia, the Blue Jays ranked 7th in the American League in runs scored. Jose Reyes, even if he becomes a diminished Jose Reyes, is an immediate upgrade to their lineup.

Adding a quality utility man like Emilio Bonifacio helps give the Blue Jays something they didn�t have last season--depth. Along with the recently signed Maicer Izturis and return of catcher John Buck, the Blue Jays have quality depth. More importantly, they have a more diverse offensive attack.

The true improvement in the trade is the strengthening of their rotation. Mark Buehrle has been one of the most dependable starting pitchers in baseball for the last dozen years. During that stretch he has averaged 219 innings pitched along with 9.4 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 5.1 K/9 along with a 3.81 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. Buehrle was miscast as an ace in Chicago, but he gives the Blue Jays something they lacked in 2012: reliability. No Blue Jays starter pitched more than 187 innings last season. With the exception of Brandon Morrow, who missed 12 starts due to an abdominal injury, no Blue Jays starter posted a league average season. Having someone as tested and reliable as Mark Buehrle is important not only to winning games, but to keeping the bullpen better rested.

The litmus test for this deal rests on the right arm of Josh Johnson. Entering his age 29 season, Johnson is just one year removed from surgery and two years away from finishing 5th in the National League Cy Young Award and leading the NL in ERA. Johnson returned to the Marlins in 2012, but started poorly. His first half registered an unspectacular 4.06 ERA and 7.5 K/9. But, as Johnson began to settle in, he found some of his dominant form. He won just 3 games in the second half, but posted a 3.53 ERA in his final 14 starts along with 8.1 K/9. His velocity was down from years� past, but he averaged 92 MPH back from surgery.

If Johnson can build on 2012 and become more like the pitcher from 2010, the Blue Jays do become legitimate playoff contenders. Johnson made 32 starts last season, got better as the season progressed, and has everything to gain if he can have that big season that many predicted for him a couple of years ago. Even if he simply repeats his 2012 season, the Blue Jays improve. They don�t, however, become World Series contenders. With a healthy, dominant Josh Johnson leading the revamped rotation of Morrow, Buehrle, Ricky Romero, and a fifth starter, the Blue Jays can pitch with just about everyone in the League.

The Blue Jays do give up some higher end prospects and do take on significant salary. There is, obviously, risk involved. But, this was an organization that has been selling patience and rebuilding for nearly two decades. With a solid core in place and after seeing the Rays compete since 2008 and the Orioles win 93 games last season, the Blue Jays had to act. They had a solid core in Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, and Edwin Encarnacion. They now add one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and add two above average starting pitchers to the rotation. It cost money, but the rewards are worth the risks.

The Blue Jays still have some holes to fill, but they now will enter Spring Training as a legitimate playoff team. Their farm system takes a small hit, but they have a rotation that, at minimum, can compete. If Josh Johnson returns to dominance, they have a potentially dominant rotation.

The American League East just got even more competitive as the Blue Jays have gone from their traditionally �just a bit short� roster to one that can be as good as the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling draft picks and prospects since he took over. He finally used some those chips to cash in and, subsequently, go all in. The time was right and the deal is right given their circumstances.

And now, maybe he will go hire a Manager.

NOTE: Seems consensus is the Marlins will get the following: Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, Anthony DeSciafani.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. In addition to writing at OS, you can read more of his work on fullcountpitch.com and join the coversation on twitter @garyarmida.

Comments

# 1 rudyjuly2 @ Nov 14

About time the Blue Jays made a big splash instead of being cheap with a primary goal of making money and a secondary goal of finishing with 85 wins. I hope this puts the Jays back on the map.

# 2 djcorrosive @ Nov 14

I feel really bad for the (few) Miami fans. The owners have continually screwed over the fan-base. Just when it looked like things were turning up (a bit) with a strong core of performance players and a new stadium the owners pull another fire-sale. If I were a tax-payer in the Miami-Dade area I would be super upset about the bag of goods sold to me by the Marlin's owner group to get that new stadium built. What do they think this will do for attendance?